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Introduction

In this series of posts, we'll bring you statistics on the main signings made by teams in Brazil's Serie A! To do this, we've separated the players into sectors: attack, midfield and defense. In this first post, we'll talk about the attackers that Brazilian clubs have invested (some of them a lot of) money in. For a better comparison, we've also chosen to showcase some players who aren't 2024 signings, precisely to compare the new players with others already established in Brazilian soccer.

The signings

Our criteria for selecting players was to choose the player recruited in 2024 with the most minutes in the team for each sector (with a minimum minute equivalent to 8 matches), prioritizing teams that have greater purchasing power and have made more significant signings in the elite of Brazilian soccer. The players selected for the attacking sector were: Luiz Henrique (Botafogo), Felipe Anderson (Palmeiras), Gustavo Scarpa (Atlético-MG), Breno Lopes (Fortaleza), André Silva (São Paulo), Everton Ribeiro (Bahia), Gabriel Veron (Cruzeiro), David (Vasco), Soteldo (Grêmio), Wesley (Internacional), Rodrigo Garro (Corinthians), Yannick Bolasie (Criciúma), Lucas Barbosa (Juventude) and Gonzalo Mastriani (Athletico).

Some clubs haven't made any signings in the attacking sector, while others have, but the signings haven't played more than the equivalent of 8 matches. In both cases, there is no player representing the team in the comparison.

Analysis and Comparison of the New Players

The data used for this analysis refers exclusively to the Brazilian Championship, covering matches up to the 29th round. It is worth noting that, due to postponements, not all teams have played 29 matches.

To begin the analysis, we will use two graphs which, although similar in scope, offer different perspectives. The first graph relates the number of shots to the expected goals, providing an insight into the quantity and quality of chances that players receive, on average, per match. The second graph relates expected goals (xG) to goals scored, making it easier to analyze how players take advantage of the chances created. In both graphs (and the third one too), the players signed this season are represented in cyan, while the green dots indicate players used as references.

The first graph shows average lines on both axes, which helps to identify players who are above or below average in each metric, dividing the graph into four quadrants. In the Goals vs. xG graph, a single line was used, dividing the graph into two quadrants: above the line are the players who scored more goals than expected; below the line, those who scored less than expected.

Graph 1. xG per 90 x Shots Per 90

Graph 2. Goals per 90 x xG per 90

  • Among the players signed this season, Gonzalo Mastriani** and Yannick Bolasie stand out in terms of the number of shots and goals expected. Their statistics in these metrics are similar to those of other players who can be considered the main finishers for their respective teams, such as Hulk, Pablo Vegetti and José López (Flaco López).

  • It’s also worth highlighting the efficiency of São Paulo’s center forward, André Silva. Although he doesn’t have a very high number of expected shots and goals, he stands out in the number of goals scored, being the player furthest away from the middle line and can therefore be considered the “most efficient” of the signings shown.

  • In contrast, Everton Ribeiro has low values in these metrics directly related to finishing moves. This highlights a big difference between him and the rest of the strikers being compared. Everton Ribeiro, as we’ll see later, is not a player marked by direct participation in finishing moves, but rather in constructing them. In the graph, he is in the bottom left quadrant, which suggests that he plays a lesser role in both shooting and scoring goals in a match.

  • Although it’s not the main focus of this analysis, it’s important to mention young Estevão, from Palmeiras. Although he is not a new signing, he “emerged” in the elite of Brazilian soccer in 2024. Despite not being a center-forward, he is one of the players who finishes the most, as well as accumulating high numbers of expected goals and goals per game. That’s impressive, considering he’s only 17 years old and is in his debut season in the league.

Finally, we chose another graph to visualize participation with the ball and the number of passes in the final third of the pitch. The interesting thing about this visualization is that we were able to ‘divide’ the players into three groups, where it’s possible to understand why the player belongs to each group according to their individual and team characteristics.

Graph 3. Accurate Final Third Passes per 90 x Touches per 90

  • The center forwards, such as Yannick Bolasie, Gonzalo Mastriani and André Silva, are below average both in terms of the number of touches they get on the ball and the number of correct passes in the final third. This isn’t necessarily a demerit, but a characteristic of the role. Center forwards tend to receive the ball less than most other players, and when they do, they’re often put under a lot of pressure, which increases the chance of a misplaced pass.

  • On the other hand, attacking players who are more constructive, such as Rodrigo Garro, Gustavo Scarpa and Everton Ribeiro, are above average in these two metrics. Everton Ribeiro, in particular, stands out from the rest, both because of his individual characteristics and because of the way Bahia uses him. The team sees him as a key player in the offensive progression, taking advantage of his superior technical quality, which makes him the main player in the construction of plays and participation with the ball.

  • Located on the graph between these two groups are the players most characterized by dribbling, such as Wesley, Luiz Henrique, Lucas Barbosa and David. The interpretation is that, despite having a number of touches and passes in the final third close to the average, these players progress in a different way to the builders. They prefer to advance with the ball through quick and, in some cases, long carries. In addition, they tend to be more involved in finishing off moves, which is why they often don’t receive the ball back in the same move after receiving it.

Conclusion

In summary, the attacking signings of Serie A clubs in 2024 reveal different player profiles, reflecting the specific characteristics of each team and their tactical needs. While central strikers such as Bolasie and Mastriani stand out for their finishing, although with less involvement in the build-up play, more creative and constructive players such as Rodrigo Garro and Everton Ribeiro play a key role in attacking progression. On the other hand, players who focus on dribbling, such as Wesley and Luiz Henrique, take a different approach, with a greater emphasis on carrying and dribbling. These distinctions reveal how the teams function differently, whether because of economic reality, the rest of the squad, or the choice of the coaching staff.