Botafogo's Surprising Club World Cup Group Stage Performance


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Introduction

Botafogo, current Copa Libertadores champion and eighth in the Brazilian league, came into the tournament on a three-game winning streak and kept most of the continental title-winning squad, despite the departures of Luiz Henrique, Thiago Almada, and soon, Igor Jesus. To strengthen the roster, the club signed forwards Arthur Cabral, Joaquín Correa, and the young Argentine prospect Álvaro Montoro.

The Rio de Janeiro's club ended up in the group considered one of the toughest, with two European giants, including the Champions League winner, Paris Saint-Germain — the Spanish powerhouse Atlético Madrid, and a strong American side, the Seattle Sounders, and still managed to finish in second place, with two wins and one loss.

Game 1: Botafogo vs Seattle Sounders

Botafogo defeated Seattle Sounders 2–1 in the opening round of the Club World Cup, in a match characterized by two very different halves: a dominant first half from the Brazilian side, and a second half largely controlled by the Americans.

Botafogo started in a 4-4-2 formation, with Igor Jesus and Mastriani up front. Savarino and Barboza returned to the starting lineup after missing the previous match.

Despite having 55% possession in the first half, Seattle failed to register a single shot on target. Botafogo, playing more directly, had seven shots — four on target — and scored twice, both from aerial plays. The first came from a Jair header after a free-kick delivered by Alex Telles; the second was a headed goal by Igor Jesus following a cross from right-back Vitinho. The Sounders struggled defensively in the air, winning only 36% of their aerial duels in the opening half.

In the second half, Seattle couldn't make it count: they had 19 shots but only 5 on target — a 26% accuracy rate. The team exchanged more passes, occupied the attacking third, and applied pressure, but were undone by poor finishing and John's saves.

The shift in Botafogo's defensive strategy between the two halves can be illustrated using PPDA (Passes Allowed per Defensive Action) charts. This metric is calculated by dividing the number of passes the opponent makes by the number of defensive actions (interceptions, tackles, duels, and fouls) by the analyzing team. Lower PPDA values indicate higher pressing intensity. The image below shows Botafogo's PPDA by zone in the first half.

Botafogo's PPDA by zone in the first half against Seattle Sounders.

In the first half, Botafogo mainly pressed in the zone just beyond midfield, without applying intense high pressing near the opponent's goal but showing reasonable pressure in advanced areas.

In the second half, as the PPDA zone chart shows, the team clearly dropped deeper, defending mostly in their own half. This strategic shift aimed to draw Seattle forward and explore counterattacking opportunities. The image below shows Botafogo's PPDA by zone in the second half.

Botafogo's PPDA by zone in the second half against Seattle Sounders.

Offensively, Botafogo relied heavily on full-backs Alex Telles and Vitinho, who played a key role in creating chances. Both displayed strong technical ability and were involved in most of the team's attacks — 9 of the 12 Botafogo shots featured contributions from one of them.

Botafogo's pass network against Seattle Sounders.

Game 2: Botafogo vs Paris Saint-Germain

Botafogo, despite having less than a 15% chance of winning according to Opta Analyst, defeated the reigning Champions League champions 1-0 in a thrilling match.

The Rio club only made one change to the starting eleven that faced the Sounders in the tournament opener. Striker Mastriani was replaced by midfielder Allan. Coach Renato Paiva opted to strengthen the midfield, given that they were up against a very strong opponent in that area. Paiva chose a 4-3-3 formation instead of the 4-4-2 used in the opening game.

PSG's dominance of possession was evident from the very first minutes. By the 14th minute, the French side had already completed an impressive 146 passes compared to Botafogo's 17. That pattern continued for virtually the entire match — PSG controlled the ball while Botafogo relied on a reactive strategy focused on defensive organization and quick transitions. By the end of the game, the numbers reflected this imbalance — PSG finished with 68% possession, Botafogo with 24%, and 8% of the time with the ball in contention. Overall, PSG completed 706 of their 766 passes, while Botafogo completed 215 of their 278. The offensive disparity was also clear: the French team received 256 passes in the final third, compared to just 32 for the Rio side.

Despite having less possession and fewer attacking opportunities, Botafogo was decisive in its actions. The team's most effective attacks came down the right flank, the origin of all four of their crosses — all of which occurred before the 55th minute, when Portuguese left-back Nuno Mendes came on. His introduction shored up PSG's defense, as has been highlighted throughout the season for his strong performances.

One aspect that really stood out was the finishing accuracy. PSG attempted 16 shots during the game, but only two were on target. In contrast, Botafogo was extremely efficient: they took four shots and hit the target with everyone, demonstrating remarkable finishing. Offensively, striker Igor Jesus was decisive once again — with his only shot of the game, he scored the winning goal.

Botafogo adopted a more defensive posture, similar to the second half against the Seattle Sounders. However, this time their lines were much more compact and close together, allowing PSG very little space to penetrate. The image below shows Botafogo's defensive actions — on the left, forced turnovers and on the right, possession recoveries.

Botafogo's defensive actions against PSG: forced turnovers (left) and possession recoveries (right).

It shows how Botafogo defended with a low block, recovering the ball predominantly in their own defensive half.

Game 3: Botafogo vs Atletico Madrid

Needing just a draw to take the lead in Group B, Botafogo put in an excellent defensive performance, which was absolutely necessary since Atlético Madrid went into the match knowing they had to win — especially given that if PSG also won, Atlético would have to do so by more than one goal to qualify.

Atlético Madrid had most of the possession, with 61% compared to Botafogo's 39%, completing 508 passes versus the Brazilian team's 303, with Botafogo making only 93 passes in the second half. Atlético's shot volume was also notable — they had 23 attempts but only 5 on target, a poor conversion rate that reflects Botafogo's incredibly solid defense. Even with Atlético's lack of finishing efficiency, they produced an impressive expected goals (xG) total of 3.03 but managed only one goal, underlining Madrid's attacking shortcomings.

Botafogo repeated the setup they had used against PSG — a 4-3-3 with very compact lines, relying on quick attacking transitions. It was also noticeable that Botafogo pressed mostly from their own half, with little high pressing; this is evident in the team's PPDA by zone.

Botafogo's PPDA by zone against Atlético Madrid.

The image shows Botafogo's PPDA (passes per defensive action) across different areas of the pitch. The redder the zone, the lower the PPDA — in other words, the more intense the pressing. The bluer the zone, the less pressure the team applied. By analyzing the image, we can see that Botafogo's pressing was mostly concentrated in their own half, especially in the first quarter of the field.

Conclusion

To sum up Botafogo's group stage in one word, it would be SURPRISING. Botafogo ended up in one of the toughest groups at the Club World Cup and still managed to qualify, in second place, ahead of two of Europe's top teams, even beating the reigning Champions League winner. According to Opta Analyst, before the start of the Club World Cup, Botafogo had about a 70% chance of being eliminated in the group stage, which underlines the impressive tournament the team is having by securing this qualification.

Overall, Botafogo delivered an outstanding performance, both offensively and defensively. Going forward, the standout was Igor Jesus, who scored two of the team's three goals in the tournament so far. He made the most of the chances that came his way and was crucial to the Rio club's qualification. The player took only 6 shots in the competition, posting a conversion rate of around 33% — one of the highest in the tournament to date.

It's also important to highlight the team's defensive performance. Barboza and Jair played at an extremely high level, forcing opposing teams into very poor shot conversion rates. The three teams that faced Botafogo — Seattle (21.7%), Paris Saint-Germain (12.5%), and Atlético Madrid (20.8%) — all had low shooting accuracy, which speaks volumes about Botafogo's defensive solidity.

Shot accuracy comparison between Botafogo and their opponents.

Botafogo had an outstanding group stage, with every player demonstrating exactly why they were crowned Libertadores champions in 2024 and showcasing the power and resilience of Brazilian football against Europe's elite.

The standout player for Botafogo in this group stage was Alexander Barboza. He was one of the key pillars behind their qualification, with only 2 dribbles completed against him across 3 matches, leading the team in tackles, interceptions, and clearances per game.

Group B qualification probabilities before the tournament.




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