The clash between Brazilian clubs Botafogo and Palmeiras extended their growing rivalry onto the international stage, as they met once again in the Round of 16 of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. The two sides previously faced off in the 2024 Copa Libertadores Round of 16 and battled for the title in the Brasileirão Série A — with Botafogo emerging victorious in both competitions.
In the Club World Cup group stage, Palmeiras topped Group A with one win and two draws. Botafogo finished second in Group B, recording two victories — including an impressive win over UEFA Champions League winners PSG — and one loss.
Despite Botafogo's recent dominance in the head-to-head record — three wins and two draws in their last five meetings — Palmeiras entered the knockout stage as slight favorites. According to Opta Analyst, Palmeiras had a 52.4% chance of winning in regular time, compared to 23.8% for Botafogo, with the probability of a draw also at 23.8%. The overall chances of advancing to the quarterfinals were more balanced: 55.6% for Palmeiras and 44.4% for Botafogo.
In the end, Palmeiras secured a 1–0 win in the Round of 16 match, with substitute Paulinho scoring the decisive goal in the first half of extra time.
Tactically, Botafogo stuck with the 4-3-3 formation that was used against PSG and Atlético de Madrid, with Danilo Barbosa stepping in for the suspended Gregore. Palmeiras deployed a 4-2-3-1 system and made several notable changes to their starting lineup. Academy product Allan started on the right wing, while rising star Estevão featured on the left. In defense, Bruno Fuchs replaced the injured Murilo, and Maurício took over for Veiga in midfield.
Match Summary
The first half ended with a clear offensive advantage for the São Paulo team. By the 30-minute mark, the Rio de Janeiro side had yet to attempt a single shot, while their opponents had already registered five. By halftime, the São Paulo club had taken seven shots with an expected goals (xG) value of 0.51, compared to just two shots and 0.07 xG for Botafogo. Despite this disparity, possession remained fairly balanced — 51% for Palmeiras and 49% for Botafogo. However, none of the nine total shots hit the target, highlighting the lack of efficiency from both sides in front of goal.
In the second half, possession remained nearly even — 52% for Botafogo and 48% for Palmeiras — but the São Paulo team continued to threaten more consistently. They registered nine shots to the opponent's two, including three on target versus just one. The xG numbers reflected this attacking edge: 0.64 to just 0.06. Goalkeeper John stood out in this period, making three crucial saves to keep Botafogo in the game. Another stat that underscored Palmeiras' dominance was corner kicks: they took 13 in regular time, compared to just two for Botafogo.
With the match still goalless after 90 minutes, extra time began at a high tempo. Substitutions brought new energy to the field — most notably Paulinho, who scored the decisive goal in the first half of extra time. During those 15 minutes, Palmeiras stayed on the front foot, producing two shots on target and converting one.
In the second half of extra time, already ahead, Palmeiras adopted a more defensive posture, particularly after replacing forward Paulinho with center-back Micael. They had only 26% possession in that stretch, focusing on protecting the lead. Meanwhile, Botafogo pushed forward aggressively. In those final 15 minutes alone, the Rio side recorded 10 shots — more than in the entire 90 minutes plus the first extra-time period combined. That final stretch generated 0.75 xG, accounting for 68.2% of their total expected goals for the entire match.
After 120 minutes, Palmeiras secured their place in the quarterfinals with a stronger overall performance: 19 total shots, five on target, 47% possession, and approximately 83% passing accuracy.
A standout performer for Palmeiras was Richard Ríos, who delivered a high-quality display over the full 120 minutes to help secure the win. He provided an assist and led his team in tackles (4), duels won (10), and distance covered (13,4 km). His performance was well-rounded, contributing both offensively and defensively, and he played a key role in the team's success.
The image below shows the attacking momentum of the match, highlighting Palmeiras' superiority, with most of the opportunities and greater attacking efficiency, despite the overall statistical balance in the game. It also shows Botafogo dominating the second half of extra time, with 10 attempts compared to none from the team from São Paulo.
Attacking momentum of the match between Palmeiras and Botafogo.
Tactical Analysis
In addition to repeating the same formation used against the European sides (PSG and Atlético de Madrid), Botafogo also stuck to the same strategy: applying pressure in their own defensive half and relying on counterattacks.
When in possession — and not attacking in transition — head coach Renato Paiva's approach was clear: the wingers, Artur and Savarino, moved into central areas to create space for overlapping full-backs Vitinho and Alex Telles, while Igor Jesus stayed as the central reference up front. This dynamic can be seen in the image below.
Botafogo's tactical formation and movement patterns.
Although he had been performing well in the tournament, forward Savarino stood out for the wrong reasons in this match. He completed only 75% of his passes, lost all 5 duels he contested, and gave away possession 10 times out of 27 touches.
Additionally, Botafogo focused more of their attacks down the right flank. Vitinho and Artur were the players with the most passing offers, with 74 and 60 respectively. The team's passing map helps illustrate this scenario.
Botafogo's passing network against Palmeiras.
Palmeiras set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation but employed an intelligent defensive tactic by shifting into a 5-4-1 variation, as shown in the image below. This adjustment proved highly effective against Botafogo's attack — particularly since, as mentioned earlier, the team focused heavily on attacking down the flanks. The compact defensive shape effectively neutralized those wide advances.
Palmeiras' defensive formation and tactical adjustments.
Palmeiras' exceptional defensive performance is evidenced by Igor Jesus' high offensive movement — 29 runs in behind — yet without any effective finishing. Palmeiras' PPDA (passes per defensive action) reflects a low-block defense, with lower values closer to the box, as shown in the image below: the more red, the lower the index (in other words, more pressure), and the more blue, the higher the index and lower the pressure.
Palmeiras' PPDA by zone against Botafogo.
One of the key positive defensive standouts was left-back Joaquín Piquerez, who played a vital role in executing this system. In addition to maintaining strong positioning and discipline on his side of the field, Piquerez led the team in defensive actions (10) and clearances (5), showing great awareness and composure throughout the match. His contribution was crucial in absorbing the pressure during Botafogo's most aggressive phases and helped Palmeiras maintain their structure even as the match became more intense.
Conclusion
The match between Palmeiras and Botafogo showcased not only the intensity of a growing rivalry but also the tactical maturity and adaptability of both teams. While Botafogo stayed true to its counterattacking identity and maintained structural consistency throughout the tournament, Palmeiras demonstrated greater flexibility — both in formation and in in-game adjustments — which ultimately made the difference.
Statistically and tactically, Palmeiras managed to control key areas of the pitch, especially in defense, where their shape and discipline effectively neutralized Botafogo's strengths. The transition from a 4-2-3-1 to a 5-4-1 in defensive phases proved decisive, as did individual performances like that of Joaquín Piquerez and Richard Ríos, who embodied the balance between defensive solidity and offensive support.
In a match defined by fine margins and intense strategic battles, Palmeiras' ability to adapt and capitalize on moments of opportunity, such as the goal in extra time, underlined the team's competitive edge — not just in terms of talent, but in execution and game management. The result was not only a deserved qualification but also a performance that reflects the evolution of Brazilian clubs on the international stage.
Having secured a spot in the quarterfinals, Palmeiras now faces a high-stakes encounter with Chelsea — the same opponent they battled in the 2022 Club World Cup final. The matchup not only revives recent history but also adds another chapter to Palmeiras' pursuit of the long-awaited dream of eternal glory on the world stage.
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