In the FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals, Palmeiras and Chelsea face off to continue in the tournament. Their last meeting was in the 2021 Club World Cup final, where Chelsea won 2–1 in extra time.
According to Opta Analyst, Palmeiras had a low chance of winning, with a 15.4% probability of victory, 20.1% chance of a draw, and a 64.5% chance of defeat. Among the 8 teams qualified so far, Palmeiras had the lowest probability of reaching the semifinals, at just 25.50%.
Palmeiras lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, similar to the setup used in their match against Botafogo. However, in this clash against the English side, the team had two crucial absences due to suspensions: Piquerez and Gustavo Gómez, both key players who had been instrumental in Palmeiras' Club World Cup campaign. They were replaced by Vanderlan and Micael.
Chelsea also had a major absence in their squad — Ecuadorian midfielder Moisés Caicedo was suspended for the quarterfinals. As a result, the team started with Andrey Santos in his place. Chelsea also used a 4-2-3-1 formation, similar to the one used in their round of 16 match against Benfica, but with some changes, including fullback Reece James and midfielder Lavia.
Match Summary
The first half was marked by greater offensive threat from Chelsea. With 68% possession, 9 shots, and 1 goal, the English side clearly dominated the first 45 minutes. Until the 40th minute, the Brazilian team had no shots at all, highlighting their lack of offensive efficiency during that period. By halftime, Palmeiras had only two shots, with just one on target. During this half, English player Cole Palmer — who scored the goal — had more shots than the entire Palmeiras team, being a key offensive pillar for Chelsea in that stretch.
Palmeiras began to improve after the 30-minute mark, gradually attempting to enhance their attacking performance, which was reflected in the attacking momentum graph — previously showing near-total dominance by Chelsea.
In the second half, at the 53rd minute, 18-year-old Estevão scored the equalizer for Palmeiras. The second half began much more balanced, with Palmeiras having 46% possession in the first 15 minutes and two shots — equaling their total from the entire first half.
The final 45 minutes saw both teams score again, each adding one more goal. Possession in the second half was more balanced, with Palmeiras at 44% versus Chelsea's 56%, and a high number of total shots — 15 combined, with 5 from Palmeiras and 10 from Chelsea.
Despite Palmeiras managing to create a few more chances as the match went on, Chelsea had the overall better performance, securing the victory. In total, Chelsea had 19 shots, 6 of which were on target, achieving a slightly higher shot conversion rate than Palmeiras — 31.6% compared to Palmeiras' 28.6%.
A negative highlight for Palmeiras was Vanderlan, who, possibly feeling the pressure of replacing first-choice left-back Piquerez, had a poor performance. He completed only 63% of his passes, won just 2 out of 7 duels (28.6%), and lost possession 15 times out of 44 touches — clearly showing how much the suspended starter was missed. The image below, which shows Palmeiras' crosses, highlights the poor performance on the left flank, with none of the left-side crosses being completed.
Palmeiras' crosses against Chelsea, showing poor performance on the left flank.
To compensate for the two suspended Palmeiras players, Bruno Fuchs — who had already performed well against Botafogo — played a crucial role in keeping the team in the game. He led all players in defensive actions with 18, far ahead of second-place Marc Cucurella with 8. Bruno was also the leader in clearances, interceptions, and tackles, and did not suffer a single successful dribble against him.
In this impressive Chelsea victory, one of the most important players was the outstanding Marc Cucurella. He had a pass accuracy of 96% and delivered an exceptional defensive performance. Notably, he was responsible for blocking all three of Palmeiras' blocked shots — showing that he excels at his duties both offensively and defensively.
Tactical Analysis
Chelsea's tactical approach was characterized by their ability to control possession and create attacking opportunities through structured build-up play. The English side's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to maintain numerical superiority in midfield while providing width through their full-backs.
The absence of Moisés Caicedo was well-managed by Chelsea's coaching staff, with Andrey Santos stepping in seamlessly to maintain the team's defensive balance. This adaptability showcased Chelsea's squad depth and tactical flexibility.
Palmeiras, despite missing key defensive players, attempted to maintain their attacking identity while adapting to Chelsea's superior technical quality. The Brazilian side's 4-2-3-1 formation was designed to provide defensive solidity while creating opportunities through quick transitions.
However, the absence of Piquerez and Gustavo Gómez proved crucial, particularly in defensive transitions and attacking support from the flanks. Vanderlan's struggles on the left side significantly impacted Palmeiras' ability to create width and maintain attacking momentum.
Conclusion
In a high-level clash marked by tactical contrasts and individual performances, Chelsea ultimately proved superior to Palmeiras, securing a deserved victory in the FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals. Despite Palmeiras' effort to adjust and respond in the second half — particularly through the brilliance of young Estevão and the defensive leadership of Bruno Fuchs — the absence of key players like Piquerez and Gustavo Gómez left noticeable gaps in both defensive stability and offensive support.
Chelsea dominated the first half with possession, precision, and an organized attacking structure, driven largely by Cole Palmer and Marc Cucurella. The English side's ability to control the game through positioning, pressing, and fluid movement exposed Palmeiras' struggles to build and progress the ball.
While Palmeiras improved in the second half, showing more offensive intent and better balance, their overall inefficiency in the final third and individual underperformances — especially from Vanderlan — hindered a full comeback. Chelsea's depth, tactical consistency, and high execution level across all phases of play ensured their progression to the semifinals.
Chelsea came out on top in this match, as predicted by Opta's probabilities, and now moves forward in the tournament with a 36.25% chance of winning the championship. Their next challenge will be against Fluminense, who arrive in great form after impressive victories over Internazionale — last season's Champions League runners-up — and Al-Hilal, the undefeated champions of the 2023/2024 Saudi Pro League.
In summary, it was a match that showcased the importance of tactical discipline, squad depth, and composure under pressure — areas where Chelsea held the advantage and converted it into a hard-fought, yet clear, win.
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