Brazil's hopeful in the competition, Fluminense, keeps surprising everyone. After overcoming Inter Milan in the round of 16 with just a 15.4% chance of advancing, and then eliminating Al Hilal in the quarterfinals despite only a 40.2% probability, the Rio de Janeiro club has embraced the role of underdog — and their semifinal clash with powerhouse Chelsea was no exception.
According to Opta's supercomputer, Chelsea had an 81.3% chance of reaching the final, making the English side the overwhelming favorite. Still, Fluminense enters the semifinal unbeaten, with three wins and two draws, consistently defying expectations.
For this crucial match, Fluminense lines up in a 3-5-2 formation but will be without two key players due to suspension: center-back Freytes, a cornerstone of their defense, and midfielder Martinelli, who scored the opening goal against Al Hilal. Their replacements are center-back Thiago Santos and holding midfielder Hércules, who has scored twice in the last two games and steps in for Martinelli.
Chelsea, meanwhile, starts in a 4-2-3-1 setup. The main change is up front, where young striker Delap makes way for newly signed Brazilian forward João Pedro, who is still adjusting to the team. Another notable development is the return of elite midfielder Moisés Caicedo, back from suspension after missing the match against Palmeiras.
Also worth mentioning is the form of right winger Pedro Neto, who has played in four of Chelsea's five matches so far, scoring three goals and standing out as one of the team's top performers in this edition of the FIFA Club World Cup.
Match Summary
The opening 45 minutes were packed with intensity, marked by speed, emotion, and high stakes. Early on, former Fluminense striker João Pedro — now wearing Chelsea blue — opened the scoring with a stunning long-range strike. Remarkably, the shot had an expected goals (xG) value of just 0.04, underscoring its brilliance.
The first half featured 10 total shots: seven by Chelsea and three by Fluminense. One of the most dangerous moments came in the 26th minute, when Hércules found himself one-on-one with the goalkeeper. His shot, with a high xG of 0.39, was miraculously cleared off the line by left-back Marc Cucurella, in what proved to be a game-saving intervention.
Controversy flared when Fluminense was initially awarded a penalty for a handball by defender Chalobah. However, after a review, the referee overturned the call, ruling that the arm movement was natural.
Chelsea dominated the attacking momentum in the second half, especially in the opening 20 minutes, during which they held 68% possession. Although Fluminense gradually regained ground, the half ended with possession nearly even. Chelsea recorded 10 shots in the second half, while Fluminense managed 9 — four of which came during stoppage time, reflecting the English side's control, particularly early on.
The match concluded with a fairly balanced possession stat: 54% for Chelsea and 46% for Fluminense. The Brazilian side registered 12 total shots but struggled with efficiency, hitting the target only 3 times — a conversion rate of just 25%. Chelsea, on the other hand, demonstrated superior control throughout both halves, finishing with 17 shots and consistent dominance in possession and attacking play.
A standout performance came from Chelsea forward João Pedro, who — in a poetic twist — scored both goals against his former club. He was ruthlessly efficient, converting both of his two shots into goals.
An intriguing individual battle unfolded on the flank between Chelsea winger Pedro Neto and Fluminense right-back Guga. The Portuguese forward came out on top, completing 4 of 6 dribble attempts and winning 5 of 8 duels. Guga, by comparison, won only 3 of his contests.
Tactical Analysis
Fluminense repeated the formation used against Inter Milan and Al Hilal (3-5-2) and adopted a similar strategy: defending in a low block, without applying much high pressure, and looking to break forward in transition. Chelsea, on the other hand, took the opposite approach — pressing high in the attacking third and successfully winning the ball in dangerous areas, as seen in the build-up to their opening goal.
PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) maps clearly illustrate this contrast in approach. They show how Chelsea applied intense pressure in advanced zones, while Fluminense remained compact and deeper. On these maps, the redder a zone, the higher the pressure; the bluer, the lower.
PPDA comparison showing defensive pressure zones for both teams.
At the 54-minute mark, with the score at 1–0, Fluminense coach Renato Gaúcho made a key tactical change. He replaced center-back Thiago Santos with winger Keno and switched to a 4-3-3 formation. The new front line featured Arias on the right, Cano through the middle, and Keno on the left.
In attack, Fluminense concentrated their efforts down the right flank, from where they delivered nine crosses — primarily through Guga and, later, Soteldo, who came on in the second half. Chelsea, meanwhile, focused more of their buildup down the left side, with Pedro Neto standing out as the team's most active crosser.
Chelsea's buildup play stood out for its structure and tactical variety. Left-back Cucurella dropped deeper to form a back three with the center-backs, while right-back Gusto pushed high up the pitch like a winger. This movement allowed Nkunku — nominally a forward — to shift centrally and join the midfield.
Nkunku thus formed a diamond in midfield alongside Enzo Fernández, Caicedo, and Palmer, with Caicedo as the deepest, Palmer in the advanced role, and Nkunku supporting both. On the left, Pedro Neto mirrored Gusto's wide role, while João Pedro stayed central as the striker. The image below helps illustrate this attacking dynamic.
Chelsea's attacking formation and Fluminense's defensive matchups.
This image also highlights some of Fluminense's individual defensive matchups in midfield. Nonato was tasked with tracking Caicedo, Hércules marked Enzo Fernández, and Bernal was responsible for Cole Palmer. These man-marking responsibilities are indicated by arrows in the image.
Conclusion
Despite their spirited performance, Fluminense's fairytale run in the FIFA Club World Cup came to an end. Chelsea, the favorites with an 81.3% chance of reaching the final according to Opta, ultimately lived up to expectations — advancing to the final, where they will face Paris Saint-Germain.
In a match filled with tactical battles and high-level execution, Chelsea's clinical edge made the difference. João Pedro, who began his career at Fluminense, played the role of heartbreaker by scoring both goals against his former club — a poetic twist that sealed the London side's path to the final.
Even in defeat, Fluminense can hold their heads high. After eliminating giants like Inter Milan and Al Hilal, the Brazilian side proved they belong on the world stage. With three wins, two draws, and just one loss — against one of the strongest squads in Europe — the underdog campaign of Fluminense will be remembered as one of the most surprising and admirable stories of the tournament.
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