Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund: A Champions League Rematch on the World Stage
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Introduction
The clash between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund marked the end of the quarterfinal stage of the FIFA Club World Cup, with the Spanish giants emerging victorious. This highly anticipated match drew extra attention, as it was a rematch of the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League final — a game Real Madrid won. Dortmund came into this fixture eager for revenge and with much to prove.
Real Madrid lined up in a 4-3-1-2 formation, despite missing key players such as Eduardo Camavinga and Ferland Mendy due to injury. Still, the squad showcased its impressive depth, featuring rising talents like Gonzalo, who had already made a mark in earlier Club World Cup matches, and the promising Arda Güler, a creative force steadily earning his place in Madrid's setup.
Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, opted for a 3-4-1-2 formation. One of the emotional subplots was Jobe Bellingham taking the field without his brother Jude, who was suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Jobe had been performing well throughout the tournament. Up front, Serhou Guirassy, one of the competition's top scorers with three goals in four matches, carried Dortmund's hopes. Aware of the challenge, even he admitted before the game: "It's going to be a tough match."
According to Opta Analyst, Real Madrid entered the match with a 59.7% chance of advancing to the semifinals, while Borussia Dortmund had a 40.3% chance. These odds reflected Madrid's status as one of the tournament favorites to lift the trophy.
Despite Borussia Dortmund having the edge in possession (58%) compared to Madrid's 42% in the first half, the Spanish side delivered a much more efficient and dangerous performance. They registered 8 total shots, with 4 on target, resulting in a 50% shot accuracy. After the second goal, Madrid pulled back slightly, allowing Dortmund to regain more control of the ball, but without creating significant danger.
In the second half, Madrid reasserted dominance, holding 57% of possession and recording 7 shots, 4 of which were on target. Despite the continued pressure, no goals came until stoppage time. Then, the game took a dramatic turn.
At 92 minutes, Borussia Dortmund capitalized on a defensive lapse and scored their first goal, narrowing the gap to 2–1. But Madrid responded almost immediately, with a third goal at the 94th minute, restoring their two-goal cushion. Dortmund, needing two more goals to equalize and force extra time, surged forward in desperation and won a penalty. Guirassy converted from the spot, making it 3–2 in the 98th minute — despite only 5 minutes of stoppage time being initially added.
The game continued for one final, dramatic opportunity. In the dying seconds, midfielder Marcel Sabitzer unleashed a powerful strike that was brilliantly saved by the Madrid goalkeeper. The shot had an xGOT (Expected Goals on Target) value of 0.70, indicating a high probability of scoring based on shot placement and trajectory — a near-equalizer denied only by a moment of goalkeeping brilliance.
In the end, despite Real Madrid's victory, the match was highly competitive. Madrid held 49% possession to Dortmund's 51%, and both teams produced a high volume of chances — 15 shots for Madrid, 12 for Dortmund. Madrid, however, showed superior finishing efficiency, with a 53.3% shot accuracy (8 out of 15), underlining their clinical edge in front of goal.
Another crucial factor in Madrid's win was their strong defensive performance. The back four combined for 16 tackles and 22 defensive actions, a testament to their resilience and discipline under pressure.
The undisputed standout of the match was Arda Güler, Real Madrid's brilliant 20-year-old prospect, who once again showcased why he is considered one of the most promising young talents in world football. Güler delivered a masterclass performance, registering two assists and playing a key role in orchestrating Madrid's attacking transitions.
Operating primarily as an advanced playmaker behind the two forwards, Arda Güler demonstrated exceptional vision, composure, and technical ability. He maintained an outstanding pass accuracy of 96%, completing nearly every pass he attempted — a remarkable feat in such a high-stakes, fast-paced match. Over the course of the game, he recorded 78 touches, a clear sign of his influence and involvement in Real Madrid's build-up play.
Just as impressive was his ball security. Güler lost possession only four times throughout the entire match, a testament to his intelligence on the ball and ability to navigate through pressure from the Dortmund midfield. Whether finding space between the lines, delivering sharp through balls, or contributing defensively when needed, he played with a maturity far beyond his age.
This performance adds to a growing list of impressive displays by Güler in the Club World Cup, further strengthening his case to become a regular starter in Carlo Ancelotti's squad. With key injuries in the team, Güler seized his opportunity and turned the spotlight onto himself — not just as a future star, but as a player ready to make a difference in the present.
The absence of Camavinga and Mendy was well-managed through tactical adjustments and the impressive performances of their replacements. This adaptability showcased Madrid's squad depth and the quality of their youth development system.
Borussia Dortmund's 3-4-1-2 formation was designed to provide defensive solidity while creating attacking opportunities through the flanks and central areas. However, their inability to convert possession into clear-cut chances in the first half proved costly, despite their numerical advantage in midfield.
The dramatic finish highlighted both teams' fighting spirit and tactical flexibility. Dortmund's late surge demonstrated their ability to adapt under pressure, while Madrid's resilience showed their experience in managing high-stakes situations.
With that win, Real Madrid now advances to the semifinals, where they will face their most challenging opponent yet — Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning UEFA Champions League titleholders. It's a clash worthy of a final, featuring two European powerhouses filled with elite talent and global stars.
However, according to Opta Analyst, PSG enters the match as the favorite, with a 58.1% probability of reaching the final of the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup in its new format. Real Madrid, while not the statistical favorite in this semifinal, still carries the weight of experience, tradition, and individual brilliance — factors that often defy the odds.
Despite being the underdog in this particular matchup, Real Madrid holds a 24.67% chance of winning the entire tournament, according to Opta projections. This figure places them among the top contenders and reflects the competitive nature of the remaining teams. Given their form, mentality, and historical pedigree, it would be unwise to count Madrid out.
As they prepare for a blockbuster semifinal, Real Madrid will be banking on the momentum gained in the quarterfinals, the growth of their young stars, and the leadership of their seasoned veterans. The road ahead is difficult — but if there's one team that knows how to navigate elite competitions, it's Real Madrid!
Real Madrid lined up in a 4-3-1-2 formation, despite missing key players such as Eduardo Camavinga and Ferland Mendy due to injury. Still, the squad showcased its impressive depth, featuring rising talents like Gonzalo, who had already made a mark in earlier Club World Cup matches, and the promising Arda Güler, a creative force steadily earning his place in Madrid's setup.
Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, opted for a 3-4-1-2 formation. One of the emotional subplots was Jobe Bellingham taking the field without his brother Jude, who was suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Jobe had been performing well throughout the tournament. Up front, Serhou Guirassy, one of the competition's top scorers with three goals in four matches, carried Dortmund's hopes. Aware of the challenge, even he admitted before the game: "It's going to be a tough match."
According to Opta Analyst, Real Madrid entered the match with a 59.7% chance of advancing to the semifinals, while Borussia Dortmund had a 40.3% chance. These odds reflected Madrid's status as one of the tournament favorites to lift the trophy.
Match Summary
Before the 35-minute mark in the first half, Real Madrid's probability of advancing to the semifinals skyrocketed from 59.7% to 91.9%, thanks to two early goals from their rising stars — Gonzalo in the 10th minute and Fran García in the 20th.Despite Borussia Dortmund having the edge in possession (58%) compared to Madrid's 42% in the first half, the Spanish side delivered a much more efficient and dangerous performance. They registered 8 total shots, with 4 on target, resulting in a 50% shot accuracy. After the second goal, Madrid pulled back slightly, allowing Dortmund to regain more control of the ball, but without creating significant danger.
In the second half, Madrid reasserted dominance, holding 57% of possession and recording 7 shots, 4 of which were on target. Despite the continued pressure, no goals came until stoppage time. Then, the game took a dramatic turn.
At 92 minutes, Borussia Dortmund capitalized on a defensive lapse and scored their first goal, narrowing the gap to 2–1. But Madrid responded almost immediately, with a third goal at the 94th minute, restoring their two-goal cushion. Dortmund, needing two more goals to equalize and force extra time, surged forward in desperation and won a penalty. Guirassy converted from the spot, making it 3–2 in the 98th minute — despite only 5 minutes of stoppage time being initially added.
The game continued for one final, dramatic opportunity. In the dying seconds, midfielder Marcel Sabitzer unleashed a powerful strike that was brilliantly saved by the Madrid goalkeeper. The shot had an xGOT (Expected Goals on Target) value of 0.70, indicating a high probability of scoring based on shot placement and trajectory — a near-equalizer denied only by a moment of goalkeeping brilliance.
In the end, despite Real Madrid's victory, the match was highly competitive. Madrid held 49% possession to Dortmund's 51%, and both teams produced a high volume of chances — 15 shots for Madrid, 12 for Dortmund. Madrid, however, showed superior finishing efficiency, with a 53.3% shot accuracy (8 out of 15), underlining their clinical edge in front of goal.
Another crucial factor in Madrid's win was their strong defensive performance. The back four combined for 16 tackles and 22 defensive actions, a testament to their resilience and discipline under pressure.
The undisputed standout of the match was Arda Güler, Real Madrid's brilliant 20-year-old prospect, who once again showcased why he is considered one of the most promising young talents in world football. Güler delivered a masterclass performance, registering two assists and playing a key role in orchestrating Madrid's attacking transitions.
Operating primarily as an advanced playmaker behind the two forwards, Arda Güler demonstrated exceptional vision, composure, and technical ability. He maintained an outstanding pass accuracy of 96%, completing nearly every pass he attempted — a remarkable feat in such a high-stakes, fast-paced match. Over the course of the game, he recorded 78 touches, a clear sign of his influence and involvement in Real Madrid's build-up play.
Just as impressive was his ball security. Güler lost possession only four times throughout the entire match, a testament to his intelligence on the ball and ability to navigate through pressure from the Dortmund midfield. Whether finding space between the lines, delivering sharp through balls, or contributing defensively when needed, he played with a maturity far beyond his age.
This performance adds to a growing list of impressive displays by Güler in the Club World Cup, further strengthening his case to become a regular starter in Carlo Ancelotti's squad. With key injuries in the team, Güler seized his opportunity and turned the spotlight onto himself — not just as a future star, but as a player ready to make a difference in the present.
Tactical Analysis
Real Madrid's tactical approach was characterized by their ability to adapt to the absence of key players while maintaining their attacking identity. The 4-3-1-2 formation allowed them to create numerical superiority in midfield while providing multiple attacking options through the central areas.The absence of Camavinga and Mendy was well-managed through tactical adjustments and the impressive performances of their replacements. This adaptability showcased Madrid's squad depth and the quality of their youth development system.
Borussia Dortmund's 3-4-1-2 formation was designed to provide defensive solidity while creating attacking opportunities through the flanks and central areas. However, their inability to convert possession into clear-cut chances in the first half proved costly, despite their numerical advantage in midfield.
The dramatic finish highlighted both teams' fighting spirit and tactical flexibility. Dortmund's late surge demonstrated their ability to adapt under pressure, while Madrid's resilience showed their experience in managing high-stakes situations.
Conclusion
Real Madrid emerged victorious in a thrilling, high-scoring quarterfinal, a match that not only highlighted their resilience but also showcased the depth and brilliance of their rising stars. Despite missing key players due to injuries, the Spanish giants delivered a confident and commanding performance, proving once again why they are one of the most successful clubs in world football.With that win, Real Madrid now advances to the semifinals, where they will face their most challenging opponent yet — Paris Saint-Germain, the reigning UEFA Champions League titleholders. It's a clash worthy of a final, featuring two European powerhouses filled with elite talent and global stars.
However, according to Opta Analyst, PSG enters the match as the favorite, with a 58.1% probability of reaching the final of the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup in its new format. Real Madrid, while not the statistical favorite in this semifinal, still carries the weight of experience, tradition, and individual brilliance — factors that often defy the odds.
Despite being the underdog in this particular matchup, Real Madrid holds a 24.67% chance of winning the entire tournament, according to Opta projections. This figure places them among the top contenders and reflects the competitive nature of the remaining teams. Given their form, mentality, and historical pedigree, it would be unwise to count Madrid out.
As they prepare for a blockbuster semifinal, Real Madrid will be banking on the momentum gained in the quarterfinals, the growth of their young stars, and the leadership of their seasoned veterans. The road ahead is difficult — but if there's one team that knows how to navigate elite competitions, it's Real Madrid!
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