In the latest post in our series on the Brazilian league's attacking signings, we'll be bringing you some new analysis of the players, as well as showing the updated graphs seen in the previous post. This time, we'll be using data that takes into account all 38 rounds of the championship (in the first post, the championship was still in its 29th round).
It's worth noting that we'll continue to focus our analysis on the players selected using the criteria explained in the last post: Luiz Henrique (Botafogo), Felipe Anderson (Palmeiras), Gustavo Scarpa (Atlético-MG), Breno Lopes (Fortaleza), André Silva (São Paulo), Everton Ribeiro (Bahia), Gabriel Veron (Cruzeiro), David (Vasco), Soteldo (Grêmio), Wesley (Internacional), Rodrigo Garro (Corinthians), Yannick Bolasie (Criciúma), Lucas Barbosa (Juventude) and Gonzalo Mastriani (Athletico).
In addition, we decided to include and focus the analysis on three more players who stood out during the year and fit the criteria used: Alerrandro (Vitória), Memphis Depay (Corinthians) and Kevin Serna (Fluminense). Finally, the players used for comparison will also be the same as in the last post and will be represented in yellow, while the signings will be represented in blue.
Decisive goals and assists
To begin with, let's try to quantify the decision-making power of these players. To do this, we'll use the decisive goal participations metric, which counts goals or assists that happened while the game was tied or while the player's team was losing by one goal .
In the following graph, the red bar represents the number of decisive goal participations, while the blue bubble represents the number of total participations.
Graph 1. Decisive goal participations in red, and total goal participations in blue
- One player stands out in a very negative way: Felipe Anderson (Palmeiras). Especially for a player who came straight from one of Europe's big five leagues, a single decisive goal in 14 minutes can be considered a disappointing result.
- Alerrandro was one of the highlights of the Brasileirão. As well as being top scorer (tied with Corinthians' Yuri Alberto ), he was extremely decisive for Vitória (especially in the final stretch, when he scored 8 decisive goals in the last 9 rounds), who finished in 11th place.
If we also take into account the number of minutes played, dividing the number of participations in goals by the number of games (90 minutes), the ranking changes shape a little, leaving room for new observations:
Graph 2. Decisive participations in goals per 90 minutes in red, and total participations in goals per 90 minutes in blue
- From this graph, you can see the impact of Memphis Depay , from Corinthians, much more clearly. He was the signing with the most decisive appearances per game, as well as having an impressive 0.9 goals per game. It's worth noting that, after round 27 ( Memphis ' debut), Corinthians had won 28 out of a possible 33 points (84% points!).
- Even taking into account the ratio of decisive goals to minutes on the field, Alerrandro (24!) continues to lead the statistics among the selected signings, scoring approximately 1 decisive goal every two matches.
- Another player worth mentioning is Kevin Serna , from Fluminense. The Colombian arrived in the mid-year transfer window and was essential to his team's escape from relegation, scoring an average of one decisive goal every two matches. It's also worth mentioning that all of the Colombian's goal participations were decisive.
General Analysis
In the graphs below, we have used the same model used in the first part of the series of posts. However, we've updated the data and also added the other players who fit the criteria to be selected ( Alerrandro , Memphis Depay and Kevin Serna ).
Graph 3. Total Shots per 90 minutes x Expected Goals per 90 minutes
- Memphis Depay is one of the players with the most shots per game in the league. However, it's interesting to note that this high number of shots is not reflected in expected goals. One interpretation is that Memphis , being a player with well above-average technical quality, attempts a lot of shots from outside the box or in difficult conditions, thus not accumulating a high number of expected goals.
- On the other hand, Alerrandro accumulates an average of expected goals per game very similar to Memphis Depay , even though he shoots considerably less, indicating less risk-taking and opting to shoot only when he is in clearer scoring conditions. In addition to this difference in characteristics, the positioning of the players on the pitch also influences this different behavior: Alerrandro is a center forward by trade, while Memphis is a second striker, forming attacking duos.
Graph 4. Goals per 90 minutes vs. Expected Goals per 90 minutes
- Once again, we have to mention Memphis Depay as an individual highlight. Among the players considered (minutes equivalent to at least 8 games), Memphis was the second player with the most goals per game (as a matter of curiosity, the first was Eduardo Vargas , from Atlético-MG). However, it's not just the number of goals per game that's impressive, but also the player's efficiency. Memphis had 0.44 expected goals/game and 0.79 goals/game (almost double!).
- André Silva , from São Paulo, also deserves a mention. Despite initially being signed as a backup for the already established Jonathan Calleri , the Brazilian finished the league with more goals, even though he had fewer expected goals (taking into account the players' minutes), showing, at least in a quick analysis, that he was a more efficient striker than the Argentine.
Conclusion
In summary, this second part of the post shows a little more about the impact of some signings in the attacking sector of Brazilian soccer. While some stood out in an extremely positive way, such as Memphis Depay and Alerrandro , being decisive and essential to their respective teams' campaigns, other players didn't have the expected effect, such as Felipe Anderson , from Palmeiras.
Furthermore, our analysis showed that the simplest metrics we used, although useful in many contexts, have limitations in capturing the full impact of certain players. In order to understand the real impact of players like Everton Ribeiro and Luiz Henrique , for example, who have been essential to their teams, it is necessary to combine different types of metrics that consider different contexts, and it is also recommended to use other types of data, such as event data. In this way, we can evaluate not only direct production in raw numbers, but also less obvious (but no less important) contributions, such as playmaking and tactical influence.
